Shares of ALIM are trading at $12.11 this morning, after hitting a new all-time high yesterday of $12.24. The company's IPO was in April 2010 at $11 per share, and the stock sagged as low as $6.30 on July 15th.
I started my position in the name yesterday, having spent the past several weeks engaged in due diligence and trying to get a better feel for "how the stock trades."
I also started a position in PSDV of about equal dollar size, as that name also is very, very modestly valued relative to a potential year-end approval of Iluvien.
These are simply starter, or monitoring positions, designed to force me to focus more closely on the name and I will continue to be doing additional work. It appears that the trigger for the move in both stocks is the passage on the calender of the T-minus six weeks mark. Apparently, the FDA notifies applicants of its intent to hold an Advisory Committee meeting at least six weeks prior to PDUFA dates, which in this case, appears to be December 29, 2010. With no AC meeting scheduled, it appears that investors believe the probability of approval has increased. I previously noted the expectation of Credit Suisse's analyst of a 75% approval probability.
Based on my own due diligence regarding Iluvien relative to Retisert, I now believe the probability of approval for Iluvien is greater than 90%.
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